Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.
The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.
That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.
This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.
The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.
This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".
Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.
DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.
There is little sign the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.
That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.
In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result possible.
Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to together combat the environmental emergency.
There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.
Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.
But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.
Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.
The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the Australian bid.
However, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by local commentators.
Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with some cover.
President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the top if his administration led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.
A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.
Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.
This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.
"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that people have food."
There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?
Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.
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