Each time the wind gusts northwest from Belarus, Lithuania prepares for problems.
That is when large aerial objects are dispatched across the border, with crates of contraband goods dangling beneath.
Over the recent period, this unauthorized aerial activity has compelled Lithuania's primary air hub into shutdown 15 times, stranding thousands of travellers.
On one occasion, the airspace was shut down entirely for a lengthy 11 hours.
However, the officials are certain they are dealing with something considerably more sinister than simple smugglers.
They assert the balloons have been turned into tools of disruption in an manifestation of hybrid warfare by Belarus, an ally of the Kremlin.
The Lithuanian administration has announced an state of emergency.
While balloons have been employed by smugglers previously, their numbers suddenly surged this October.
"Of course it began as organised crime activity, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus uses criminal networks to influence neighbouring countries," a senior official stated.
The official suggested the balloons are sent from locations that help them best "target" Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.
"If the goal was to conduct a contraband run, you'd do it in the forests or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister reasoned.
Instead, there is a conviction that the balloons represent a form of political blackmail on Europe's eastern edge.
"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the military and security field."
Now, nightly, military police head out in the frontier area.
The balloons are most frequent during the night.
Units establish mobile checkpoints on remote country roads, inspecting drivers' documents and examining vehicles in search of anyone connected to the smuggling networks.
The balloons fly too high to make intercepting them with firearms a viable or cost-effective option.
Consequently, the government has offered a financial incentive to any company that can figure out how to intercept them.
For now, teams use military radar to track the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the drop zones.
Soon, new criminal charges for acts of sabotage should also act as a preventive measure.
The frontier line is now marked by a tall metal fence, with barbed wire and fortifications.
This extra security is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now views its neighbour as hostile.
Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "baseless".
He recently attributed the activity to "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and getting creative to overcome the new security fence.
Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.
In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, provoking a deliberate crisis.
"Now they are doing a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, precisely targeted at the airport," explained a security official.
"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it immediately. But they don't. That means it benefits them."
The belief is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into easing sanctions.
"They want to attract political attention and force us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister interprets the dramatic increase of balloons.
The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as legitimate following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.
Sanctions were imposed then and strengthened later when Belarus assisted Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.
For now, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.
"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.
One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.
Revenue losses for all affected businesses are projected to reach €2m by year's end.
"There are direct financial costs, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.
Already, travellers consult a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.
"It's stressful, it makes me a anxious. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.
"I am convinced this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then mock us."
Her words suggest that another aim of such hybrid activity – sowing discontent – is also having an effect, and perhaps harder to defend against.
"They're basically testing the limits of Nato: looking at how we protect against these kinds of things," said another citizen.
"And we can't even deal with simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the fundamental challenges."
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