For a brief period, the former US president appeared to take a strong stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following making warnings of "significant repercussions" last August should Putin carried on hindering ceasefire discussions, he finally introduced substantial sanctions on the Russian biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously affected the Russian leader's capacity to support his war effort in the region.
Yet, through his latest detailed peace plan for the conflict, which was developed by both nations' representatives excluding Ukraine's or European involvement, the former president has clearly reverted to his favorable to Russia stance.
This proposal would in practice benefit the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while putting the country's democratic system in danger. Although bold proclamations that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", much of the initiative actually weaken that same independence. Seen as a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.
Reflecting his corporate background, the former president seems to view the situation in Ukraine as a basic territorial dispute, implying ceding Russia a part of Ukraine's soil will please the ruler. But, Russia's war is not simply about dominating a destroyed swath of industrial-devastated area in eastern Ukraine. It is about the nation's political system – and Putin's clear goal to weaken it so it stops serves as an enticing model for the Russian people of the accountable government that Putin's growing authoritarian rule prevents them.
While maintaining in status the currently split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would compel the nation to give up the whole this eastern territory. In addition to favoring Russia with land that its forces have been failed to capture in more than a decade of fighting, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian defenses dangerously compromised.
This region is the location of Ukraine's well-known "defensive line", the entrenched military defenses that are a key obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these positions, providing Russian forces a unobstructed path to the capital if he subsequently opt to renew the hostilities.
Then, in a action that would enable future fighting more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would mandate Ukraine to cut the numbers of its armed forces from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a cap of this lower number. Significantly, Trump's initiative sets no equivalent limits on Russian forces.
In what appears as a gesture to Putin's campaign to characterize the nation's democratically elected administration as radicals, the plan asserts: "Any extremist ideology and activities must be opposed and prohibited." Seemingly to underscore this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a peace deal. However, Trump sets no condition that Putin risk his authoritarian rule by conducting democratic processes in his own country.
To be sure, the proposal makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in legislation its stance of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached similar treaties in the history – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government promised to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in return for giving up its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a restoration of occupied land in eastern Ukraine to the government – why should anyone believe Putin now?
This explains the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western protection assurances. While the plan threatens a "decisive joint military response" should the Russian Federation restart its aggression, and provides that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the details include fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not just deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent member states from stationing forces on Ukraine's soil, thus preventing the security presence, likely led by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to prevent Russia from rebuilding his diminished military, restocking, and attacking again.
A separate side agreement according to sources would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any later "serious, intentional, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an act of war jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." This implies a armed reaction. Yet unlike a powerful Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable protection against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would rely on the willingness of Western powers, such as the US administration, to act militarily to Putin's aggression, something they have {not
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