A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its plan to rule indefinitely.
That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.
In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.
“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for this long.”
These observations have fueled a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.
A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.
For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.
However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.
Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.
“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”
Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.
“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.
Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.
This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.
Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.
A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.
“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”
Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results.
“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”
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