During a lavish exclusive gathering at the Raffles hotel on Whitehall recently, prominent figures from the remaining ranks of the Conservative party celebrated a major magazine's annual political honors.
With the magazine’s editorial line continuing to backing the Tories, despite the party confront severe challenges from Reform UK, observers expected that speculation swirled during the upscale reception was about the security of the leader's position was at risk.
One senior figure, who unsuccessfully ran, couldn’t resist a dig during his speech targeting the obvious aspirations of a fellow frontbencher, a key rival – considered the main challenger.
“Am I after her job? Will I make a move against the leader and steal the crown? No, of course I’m not,” the experienced politician told the laughing audience as he opened the evening's proceedings.
Jenrick, who came second, has recently shifted sharply rightward to take on Nigel Farage, responded with humor. His strategic moves have been anything but subtle.
Earlier this year, a dissatisfied MP initiated a public timer on social media showing remaining time until Conservative rules allow leadership bids. That period concludes on Sunday.
From then on, the Tory leader’s critics will be able to submit letters to trigger a contest. The rules changed last year raising the required support, meaning 30% from parliamentary colleagues must endorse, up from 15%, establishing a tougher standard for those trying to oust her.
But could any putative rivals – Jenrick foremost among them – secure support from colleagues needed to initiate proceedings? Party sources reference previous nomination totals during the last race: 28 in the first round. “That’s your starting point,” according to insiders.
There is no shortage of Conservative legislators ready to express dissatisfaction with the leader: her approach, her political judgment, her public appeal. However, generally, they are hesitant about committing yet another act of political regicide at this time.
Some Conservative MPs further think her performance at the autumn party conference, unveiling plans to remove property tax for main residences, has bought her temporary relief.
“We might not be happy with Kemi’s leadership we will act cautiously regarding a change. Voters already perceive we engage in internal conflicts. We don’t need to give them further confirmation,” an anonymous legislator stated.
This doesn't mean planning has ceased. “Kemi has until May. Upcoming council polls are going to be cataclysmic for the party. Nobody is going to want to assume leadership preemptively and have to own the result. But afterwards, we will need somebody who can take us in a new direction,” one shadow cabinet minister commented.
The polls already suggest Badenoch has made little progress with the public over the last year and that she has fallen in terms of her personal ratings. With a negative score, she is less popular than Jenrick (-16) and Mel Stride (-21), per recent polling.
Data from YouGov further reveals that Badenoch has convinced only 12% of Britons she is a prime minister in waiting. The outlook improves among Conservative voters, with 54% saying she has done a good job in her role, and only 30% opposing her continuation the party into the next general election.
But while Tory supporters are ambivalent, a general agreement exists among the MPs that a change is inevitable before the next national vote.
The key disagreement centers on timing for a spring leadership change and have a chance at stopping the rival party's advance – or leave it until closer to the general election when Farage might have imploded, and voters could be more willing to listen to the Tories again.
It is no secret that the challenger believes he is the right candidate. However, associates claim he has no plans to move now, and agrees with those who thinks they should wait until spring.
Some speculate that a rescuer could emerge from less expected with a lower profile (one junior minister is sometimes suggested) or a member of the new intake with less obvious links to the party’s time in power.
Another former candidate, is considered a consensus builder, remaining reserved. His allies say he thinks there is no alternative than current leadership, as anybody taking over now would inherit an even more difficult situation.
Should a race begin, some would certainly urging Cleverly to stand, and he may be persuadable to give it another shot. Several moderate legislators are organizing a rearguard action to block the frontrunner leader in any eventual contest.
An influential insider cautioned that the “energy is all on the right” within and beyond the Conservative party, citing figures such as Jenrick, Neil O’Brien, Katie Lam and Nick Timothy. “It is a chance for James as he has the stature and the relationship with members, while others oppose Jenrick at any costs.”
“Quite a lot of minds potential agreements with the rival party eventually. During the votes on social issues generated significant calls for expulsion of dissenters while Reform privately suggests Liberal Democrat sympathizers must go. That tips things in Robert’s favour a bit.”
Yet another source noted: “Jenrick winning is not a foregone conclusion. A competitive race involving multiple candidates – Cleverly, Stride. The assumption that conservatives consistently secure membership support is not necessarily the case.”
A seasoned casino analyst with over a decade of experience in gaming strategies and industry trends.
